Where will all the pigs be raised? Global Economics Vs Food Security and other Politics




НазваниеWhere will all the pigs be raised? Global Economics Vs Food Security and other Politics
Л.Н. Толстого «Война и мир» в системе информационно-методическо
Дата18.09.2013
Размер6.06 Mb.
ТипПрезентации


Where will all the pigs be raised? Global Economics Vs Food Security and other Politics

Jerry Thompson

Genus Director

Russia and Asia Pacific


Introduction

  • Global Economic Overview

    • The PIC World Pork Competitive Survey
  • Non-economic Factors

    • From Food Security to Customer Demand
  • Showcase on China



The Challenge

  • Double food output by 2050 using 50% of the water that we use today



World Meat Production and Trade



Per Capita Meat Consumption



World Pork Production and Trade



Who is Eating Pork?



Per Capita Pork Consumption (Kgs/person)



Selected Net Importer Countries



2009 Selected Export Countries



The PIC World Pork Competitive Survey

  • Objective:

    • Quantitative study of key success factors that positively or negatively impact growth in pork production in selected countries
    • 70 Industry leaders from 15 different countries
    • Focus on: USA, Canada, EU-27, Chile, Mexico, China, Japan, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, South Korea, Phillipines.


Industry Key Success Factors



Ability to Compete?



What about Cost?



Non-Economic Factors

Food Security

The availability of food and our access to it

China’s Twelfth Five Years Plan Date:16 March 2011

把握“一个重点任务”,按照科学发展的要求来加快现代农业的发展。在工业化和城镇化的过程当中,同步推进农业现代化。另外,要突出“一条主线”,就是要加快农业发展方式的转变,继续调整和优化产业结构。

紧紧围绕“两个目标”,就是把保证国家粮食安全、持续发展我们的粮食生产作为首要目标,把持续快速的增加农民收入作为农业农村经济工作的中心目标.

提高“三个能力”,提高农业的综合生产能力、农业的抗风险能力和农业的市场竞争能力。

在“十二五”要下大力气推进“四化”,农业生产经营的专业化、标准化、规模化和集约化。

强化“五大支撑”,强化农业发展的政策支撑、科技支撑、装备支撑、人才支撑、体制机制支撑

The ‘Putin Plan’ for Russia

2-й этап Программы реализуется в 2013-2020 гг.

Цель увеличить маточное поголовье до 2.85 млн свиноматок с общим поголовьем до 35 млн голов (при умеренном сценарии) или до 45 млн (при инновационном сценарии)

основные задачи для достижения плана:
  • улучшение экономических условий работы свиноводства России, обновление племенного потенциала, повышение конкурентоспособности и экономической эффективности производства свинины

  • создание и развитие сети селекционно-генетических центров с первоклассным научно-технологическим потенциалом

  • реконструкция действующих и создание новых производственных мощностей в товарном свиноводстве в рамках различных организационных моделей и форм хозяйственной деятельности

  • Развитие предприятий по убою и мясопереработке кормовой базы свиноводства, повышение качества кормов

  • разработка и внедрение современных стандартов качества и технического регламента производства свинины



Table 1. Expansion Plan for Pork Production in 2009 to 2020



Expansion plan of yearly average swine stock in 2009-2012 & up to 2020,





The Republic produces 2.6M pigs in 1965!!!



The Result….



Trade Restrictions….





…and other Politics



Animal Welfare Concerns



COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2001/88/EC of 23 October 2001 amending Directive 91/630/EEC laying down minimum standards for the protection of pig

Sows and gilts shall be kept in groups during a period starting from 4 weeks after the service to 1 week before the expected time of farrowing. The pen where the group is kept must have sides greater than 2,8 m in length. When less than 6 individuals are kept in a group the pen where the group is kept must have sides greater than 2,4 m in length.

COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2001/93/EC of 23 October 2001 amending Directive 91/630/EEC laying down minimum standards for the protection of pig

  • Focus on:

    • Light requirements and maximum noise levels,
    • Permanent access to materials for rooting and playing,
    • Permanent access to fresh water,
    • Additional restrictive conditions to carry out mutilations on pigs,
    • Minimum weaning age of four weeks.


UK Sow herd post stalls and tethers

  • The sow stall and tether legislation which came into effect on 1 January 1999, led to large investment in sow housing and manure handling facilities. It is estimated that 70 per cent of indoor sows (420,000) were housed in stall and tether systems prior to the ban. The typical cost of conversion was £400/sow place. Lack of compensation for the change and the inability to recoup the cost from the marketplace had two effects. Firstly capital was diverted from other capital projects which would have shown higher returns. Secondly there was an increase in overall sow numbers as producers attempted to spread increased overhead costs. The increased pig numbers compounded the price slump of 1998/1999. The slump was unique in that, for the first time in modern intensive pig production, a series of world events impacted on the cyclical pig price to create rises where even the most efficient lost money on a scale that implied substantial cash loss to their businesses. A loss of 20 per cent of the net worth of an intensive pig operation in one year was not uncommon as prices plummeted to a low of 65p kg/dwt. Survival in these circumstances was not necessarily by the most technically efficient but where the  borrowings were low or the business was supported by other enterprises.



UK Herd Size – 1973 - 2010



In response 40% of the UK herd is now outdoors



Sow Stalls or Group Housing by 2020?



What does the Customer really want?



Global Consumption









Future of China’s Protein Consumption 2005 - 2030



Stable increase of rural inhabitants’ income









The new Integrators



PIC Nucleus in Benxi



Thank you!

Thank you!


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